How Underdog Teams Are Shaking Up This Year’s NCAA Bracket

The 2025–26 college basketball season is already taking shape, even in the middle of July. Rosters are mostly set, and early signs point to more than just the usual dominance from top programs. Instead, there's a noticeable shift in expectations. Underdog teams are stepping up and making a serious push for March Madness relevance.

These teams aren’t just filling space in the bracket; they’re pushing out familiar names and shaking up the landscape. The tournament picture is changing early, with lesser-known programs gaining momentum and challenging the traditional hierarchy long before the first tip-off of the season.

A New Order Begins to Form

This year’s bracket structure already reveals surprises that point to a brewing underdog storm. Teams like Georgetown, Cincinnati, and Boise State — all tabbed as “last four in” — aren’t known for overwhelming recent success. Yet they’re positioned to crash the party in 2026.

Even more compelling are the “first four out” — Mississippi State, Indiana, Georgia, and Kansas State. These programs hover just outside the current projection but would qualify under a proposed 72-team tournament format.

Expansion talks are still in motion, and should they be approved, the door swings wide open for these fringe teams to step into the limelight. That looming possibility injects urgency into the early season for squads hovering near the cutline.

Big Leagues Under Threat

The SEC shattered records with 14 tournament bids last season. That feat may not repeat, despite the league having 13 of the top 40 teams in Bart Torvik’s preseason rankings. The problem? Depth quality. Five of those SEC teams fall between ranks 31 and 40. While not inherently bad, it raises questions about whether their resumes will hold up if early non-conference performances fall short.

In comparison, the Big Ten and Big 12 are dominant in terms of depth. Incredibly, the Big Ten accounts for 14 of the top 50 and 9 of the top 30. At number eight in the top 35, the Big 12 is not far behind.

The way middle-tier programs in other leagues are assessed is altered by this competition at the top. Someone has to lose, simply because there isn't much space in the bracket, which creates room for hungry underdogs to gain ground.

Underdogs with Tournament Bite

Some mid-major and lower-seeded programs already slotted into the bracket are positioned to make serious noise. Teams like Yale, McNeese, Liberty, and Akron enter the field as 12 seeds — historically the seed line where bracket-shaking upsets thrive. Just last year, two No. 12 seeds advanced to the Round of 32. Liberty’s matchup against a No. 5 seed like Arizona could offer another textbook surprise, with odds by FanDuel hinting at the potential for an upset.

South Florida, VCU, and Saint Mary’s are all in the 10-seed range, pitted against higher-ranked squads with inconsistent track records. With solid coaching and veteran rosters, these underdogs have the blueprint for first-round wins and possible Sweet 16 runs.

Bettors also shouldn’t overlook the 13-14 seed range. Teams such as UC Santa Barbara, Towson, and Northern Iowa could make life miserable for their Power Five opponents. In particular, Northern Iowa, long known for tournament shockers, faces UCLA, a team prone to postseason variability.

Conference Clout and Coaching Gambles

Beyond the seeds, conference dynamics also set the stage for surprises. The ACC is at a crossroads, banking on four new head coaches to inject life into a league that slipped in last year’s tournament representation. If that coaching experiment fails to gel quickly, it could cost the ACC valuable slots, slots that underdog programs from mid-major conferences will be eager to take.

Meanwhile, the Big East has its share of drama. Georgetown has clawed its way into the “last four in” mix. Providence and Villanova, however, sit uncomfortably close to being on the outside again. These once-proud programs may find themselves ousted by rising mid-majors if their upward trajectories stall.

The Expansion Wildcard

The NCAA’s ongoing discussion of expanding the tournament to 72 or even 76 teams offers a dramatic shift that underdogs are closely monitoring. If implemented, the expansion would introduce more at-large bids, the lifeblood of bubble teams.

In this structure, the “first four out” category transforms from heartbreak to opportunity. Teams like Georgia and Indiana, which might miss the cut under the current format, could instead earn a ticket to Dayton for a shot in the preliminary round. That change not only boosts their postseason hopes but also shifts strategic planning across the board.

Coaches on the edge might schedule more aggressive non-conference games to bolster resumes, knowing the expansion gives them a longer runway. Fans, too, would see a wider array of teams and playing styles, from pressing mid-majors to rugged SEC squads, making March even more chaotic. For those tracking potential Cinderella runs or upsets, it’s the perfect time to explore NCAAB matchups on FanDuel.

Matchups That Could Flip the Script

Several early matchups in the tournament bracket promise chaos for predictions. Georgetown vs. Boise State and Cincinnati vs. Texas A&M are razor-close First Four contests with the potential to launch a surprise run. Meanwhile, South Dakota State's up-tempo offense could stun BYU in a classic 14 vs. 3 upset scenario.

Don’t sleep on Abilene Christian either — their fearless play and past tournament success could spell trouble for an inconsistent Auburn squad.

All Eyes on Summer Signals

Though it's still summer, Bracketology already paints a story of turbulence ahead. Power conferences remain strong, but they’re not invincible. Underdogs, armed with returning talent, creative coaching, and favorable early matchups, are primed to capitalize.

What’s unique about this year’s bracket isn’t just the potential for upsets; it's the volume. There's a swelling pool of programs capable of winning first-round games, and more importantly, sustaining that momentum.

If expansion hits, it adds gasoline to the fire. If not, the desperation deepens. Either way, underdogs aren’t waiting for invites. They’re fighting now, in preseason rankings, in coaching meetings, in August practices. Come March, their preparation could shock the system.

Cover Credits: UnSplash